See letter " Malaria carriers. This article has been cited by other articles in PMC. Abstract The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century.
Abstract Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesize their results.
Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered.
Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.
Biodiversity, climate change, species extinctions 1. Introduction Predicting the response of biodiversity to climate change has become an extremely active field of research e. Predictions play an important role in alerting scientists and decision makers to potential future risks, provide a means to bolster attribution of biological changes to climate change and can support the development of proactive strategies to reduce climate change impacts on biodiversity Pereira et al.
Although there is relatively limited evidence of current extinctions caused by climate change, studies suggest that climate change could surpass habitat destruction as the greatest global threat to biodiversity over the next several decades Leadley et al.
However, the multiplicity of approaches and the resulting variability in projections make it difficult to get a clear picture of the future of biodiversity under different scenarios of global climatic change Pereira et al. Hence, there is an urgent need to review our current understanding of the effects of climate change on biodiversity and our capacity to project future impacts using models.
To this end, we have reviewed both the ranges of possible impacts of climate change that operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales and the different responses that could occur at individual, population or species levels.
We then present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to model future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesize their results focusing on how model combinations are used to project the impacts of climate change on species loss.
Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research, from theoretical e.
Biodiversity and climate change: They primarily concern various strengths and forms of fitness decrease, which are expressed at different levels, and have effects on individuals, populations, species, ecological networks and ecosystems. At the most basic levels of biodiversity, climate change is able to decrease genetic diversity of populations due to directional selection and rapid migration, which could in turn affect ecosystem functioning and resilience Botkin et al.
However, most studies are centred on impacts at higher organizational levels, and genetic effects of climate change have been explored only for a very small number of species.This report examines (1) methods used to estimate the potential economic effects of climate change in the United States, (2) what is known about these effects, and (3) the extent to which information about these effects could inform efforts to manage climate risks across the federal government.
Predictions play an important role in alerting scientists and decision makers to potential future risks, provide a means to bolster attribution of biological changes to climate change and can support the development of proactive strategies to reduce climate change impacts on biodiversity (Pereira et al.
; Parmesan et al. ). This page is being updated. Thank you for your interest in this topic. We are currently updating our website to reflect EPA's priorities under the leadership of President Trump and Administrator Pruitt.
The potential for abrupt climate change Scientists know that Earth's climate has changed abruptly in the past.
Even though it is unlikely to occur in the near future, global warming may increase the risk of such events. This report is the Second National Climate Assessment.
It summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, at present and in the future. It is largely based on results of USGCRP research, and integrates those results with related research from around the world.
outlines the impact of climate change in four developing country regions: Africa, Asia, Latin America and small uncertainties about climate change. Warming of the climate system is now unequivocal.
It is now clear that sheets also has the potential to influence global patterns of ocean circulation.